The Peruvian economy continues to recover this year,
Although Velarde described this progress as a positive result, he said the country is showing relatively modest growth when compared with the exceptionally-favorable international boom in metal prices.
During his participation in the Loreto Regional Economic Forum held in Iquitos, the BCR head noted that Peru is experiencing historically high terms of trade, driven by elevated prices for export commodities such as gold, silver, and copper.
He said these favorable conditions provide an opportunity to accelerate economic growth to 6.0% or 7.0%, a goal that will depend on the actions to be implemented by the next government administration.
Demand
At the sectoral level, this domestic momentum is supported by the strength of hard data on demand and private-sector activity.
Private investment expanded by 13.3% during the first quarter of 2026.
According to leading indicators for April and May, private investment likely performed even more strongly during those months.
This progress is reflected in the 24.6% increase in capital goods imports and in domestic cement consumption, which grew at double-digit rates, reaching approximately 12.0%.
The BCR governor also highlighted the recovery of the labor market, as reflected in formal employment growth recorded in electronic payrolls, which show an increase of nearly 8.0%.
In this context, macroeconomic projections indicate that private spending will remain the main driver of economic growth, supported by low inflation and employment recovery.
U.S.–Iran agreement
On the international front, the global economic outlook has improved significantly due to the recent understanding reached between the United States and Iran.
Velarde explained that this geopolitical agreement significantly changes the global outlook by removing one of the main external risks that threatened to affect the start of the next Peruvian administration: a surge in energy costs.
Before this understanding was reached, inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict had pointed to Brent crude oil prices approaching US$200 per barrel.
This would have sharply increased maritime shipping costs—which had already risen by nearly 50.0%—as well as the prices of fertilizers and imported food commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans.
With the signed agreement, the decline in global oil and fuel prices is helping to stabilize logistics costs and creating conditions for very low or even negative monthly inflation rates in various countries.
Despite the easing of this source of external volatility, the BCR head warned that the domestic economy still faces a significant risk factor on the internal front: the impact of El Niño phenomenon.
This climate event is expected to intensify toward the end of this year and the beginning of 2027.
As a result, the extent of its impact on agricultural production and infrastructure will depend strictly on the effectiveness of the mitigation measures implemented to control its effects.
In addition, regarding exchange-rate and fiscal matters, Velarde emphasized the Peruvian sol's strength relative to other currencies in the region, supported by inflation that remains the lowest in Latin America.
However, he reiterated the need to keep rigid current public-sector spending under control in order to safeguard the sustainability of public finances should international commodity prices decline.
Finally, when asked about whether he would remain at the BCR's helm as a new government administration approaches, Velarde declined to answer directly.
He cautiously argued that any statement on the matter could be misinterpreted as expressing a personal desire either to stay in or leave the institution.