The
Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) confirmed that the currently ongoing weak El Niño Costero event along the Peruvian coastline will intensify to moderate magnitude between June and July.
This was reported in ENFEN's official statement No. 08-2026.
In that regard, the entity maintains the "Coastal El Niño Alert" status along the Peruvian coast.
"This climate event could continue, at least, until January 2027 with weak intensity, although it could reach a moderate magnitude between June and July," it emphasized.
ENFEN said the decision was made after assessing current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, along with reviewing national and international climate forecasts.
Possible development of El Niño in central Pacific
The technical body further reported that in the Niño 3.4 region—located in the central Pacific—the current neutral condition is expected to shift to a warm phase starting in June 2026, driven by rising sea surface temperatures, a situation that would persist until January 2027.
This would correspond to the likely development of a new weak El Niño event, although it could reach moderate levels between November and December.
Rainfall and above-normal temperatures
For the May–July quarter, ENFEN projects that precipitation along the northern coast will range from normal to above-average levels, with localized episodes during May due to the rainy season's end.
Likewise, air temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the entire coastal strip, which could increase heat perception and create favorable conditions for localized weather events.
Rivers at normal flow levels and impact on fishing
On the hydrological front, river flows along the Pacific watershed are expected to remain within the normal range, except in the southern part of Peru, where variations could occur.
Regarding marine resources, ENFEN warned that anchoveta from the north-central stock will continue to post low catches in the coming weeks due to temporary fishing closures caused by the high presence of juvenile specimens.
In contrast, bonito is expected to remain available along the Peruvian coast.
Call to authorities and public
Finally, ENFEN's technical committee recommended that authorities take into account risk scenarios and weather advisories in order to adopt prevention, disaster risk reduction, and preparedness measures ahead of possible emergencies during the upcoming rainy season, expected between September 2026 and April 2027.
It also urged the citizenry to stay informed exclusively through ENFEN's official channels.
The entity said it will continue monitoring oceanic, atmospheric, hydrological, and fisheries conditions.
(END) MAO/MVB
Publicado: 3/5/2026