The Peruvian economy is operating in a more benign global scenario than anticipated and is benefiting from its best terms of trade in 75 years,
stated on Monday, while analyzing the country's performance and outlook.
During the first session of the Economic Forum organized by the issuing entity in Piura, the expert noted that fears of a global recession at the beginning of the year have not materialized.
These concerns had been driven by tariff uncertainty in the United States.
In contrast, projections for the major economies are positive: the United States is expected to grow around 2% this year (1.9% according to the International Monetary Fund).
In turn, China is expected to grow close to 4.8%, a figure higher than previously estimated.
Velarde emphasized that, while trade tensions persist, U.S. tariffs will not affect Peru as intensively as they do other countries in the region, such as Chile and Colombia.
The factor with the greatest positive impact on the national economy is Peru's unprecedented terms of trade level.
"We are enjoying the best terms of trade in the last 75 years," Velarde stated, noting that one has to go back to the 1950s or 1951 to find prices as favorable for Peruvian exports.
The BCR head mentioned that this boom, similar to past periods that drove major public investment (such as the Lima-based National Stadium or the Employee's Hospital), is significantly boosting fiscal revenues.
Additionally, he highlighted the growing role of India, which is already the second-largest destination for Peru's traditional exports and the third for its total exports.
Trade
China remains the main buyer of traditional products, while the United States leads in the purchase of non-traditional ones.
This favorable context is directly reflected in Peru's external accounts.
The trade balance is expected to maintain a very significant surplus, projected at over US$30 billion for 2025 and US$32.4 billion next year.
This latest surplus level surpasses the total imports recorded 15 years ago.
As a result, the current account will remain in positive territory, estimated at 1.9% of GDP in 2024 and 2% in 2025. It is a favorable contrast with the deficits faced by economies such as Colombia (2.5%) and Brazil (2.6%).
Regarding domestic economic activity, the BCR projects 3.2% GDP growth for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026.
Domestic demand is expected to grow 5.1% this year.
The dynamism is reflected in short-term indicators: imports of industrial inputs grew 18.9% between January and July, while imports of capital goods rose 18.6%.
Private investment grew 9% in the first half of this year. it is projected to end the year with a 6.5% increase.
Employment
Regarding the labor market, total formal dependent employment (public and private) grew 5.1% in the first seven months.
Meanwhile, private employment expanded 6.6%, driven by sectors such as construction, services, and commerce.
The BCR governor highlighted that business perceptions and 12-month expectations are positive, even extending into the next government.
This reinforces confidence that Peru will achieve the third-highest growth rate in the region this 2025 and the second-highest in 2026, according to most analysts.
The Economic Forum is a platform for debate, promoted and organized by the BCR. It is aimed at bringing together various political, economic, academic, and trade actors from Peruvian regions to address topics of interest.