Operations for Peru's volatile fishing and agriculture sectors —both vulnerable to El Niño and La Niña disturbances, among other weather events—
, Moody's Investors Service has projected.
"For the next anchovy fishing season
, allowable fishing quotas and prices should remain stable," it expressed.
—Peru's federal multi-sector commission for the study of El Niño— assigns a 60% likelihood of stable seawater temperature conditions during the next Peruvian summer, from December 2019 to March 2020.
Likewise, Peru's Production Ministry —the ministry that oversees the fishing industry— has set quotas for the first of 2019's two annual fishing seasons at 2.1 million metric tons
, in line with the previous season.
The recovery of biomass and stable weather since mid-2016 has led to more stable fishing quotas, above 2 million metric tons, and fishmeal prices averaging US$1,488/metric tons over the 12 months through May 2019, very close to its historical average.
"We estimate that Peru will set the next federal fishing quota at around 2.0 million-2.5 million metric tons, based on expectations of stable weather. ENFEN assigns a 60% probability of neutral El Niño
/La Niña conditions for the 2019-20 summer, and zero likelihood of a moderately strong or extraordinary El Niño or La Niña disturbance," Moody's said.
"We expect that the Peruvian agriculture sector
will continue to grow in 2019 following a 3.5% rise from January to May, according to Peru's central bank, thanks in particular to an increase in planted hectares and benign weather conditions," it added.
Like the fishing industry, the Peruvian agriculture
industry has seen wide variations in its growth stemming from variable weather conditions. In 2018, Peru's agriculture sector
grew by 9.4% amid record production of blueberries, coffee, olives, avocados, and bananas, among other products, reversing the stress of a severe coastal El Niño in 2017 that triggered severe droughts and heavy rains.