After a troubled 2017, Peru's protein and agriculture sectors will face more benign conditions, with stable weather through the first quarter of 2019, Moody's Investors Service projected in its latest report.
"Assuming no further climatic disruptions,
Camposol's production and distribution will likely continue to grow over the next few years, with global demand projections that appear strong for healthy, fresh products such as blueberries and avocados," it expressed.
According to the credit rating agency, Camposol's growing
blueberry business —its most profitable— will continue to support its balance sheet and profitability in 2018-19, having contributed 36% of the company's sales with only 20% of its volume for the 12 months through March 2018.
By contrast, avocados represented 31% of Camposol's sales but 55% of its volumes.
As Camposol's main area of investment since 2015, the blueberry segment will continue to grow, with about US$167 million in revenue in 2018, a 67% increase from US$100 million in 2016.
Furthermore, its growing blueberry production will enhance Camposol's protection from climate conditions.
A typical El Niño/La Niña generally appears off the coast of South America close to the very end of the year, and peaks in the eastern Pacific during the late fall of the following year.
Fisheries
The government set the first
anchovy fishing season quota of 2018 at 3.3 million tons, more than double the second season of 2017, when a high presence of young anchovies led the government to set a lower quota of just 1.5 million tons.
"We estimate that the next
fishing season will be set around 2.5 million tons based on a more stable weather environment," Moody's expressed.
It added the size of the first
fishing quota for 2018 will benefit credit metrics for Pesquera Exalmar (B3 stable).
Volumes and cash flow for Peru's third-biggest anchovy-processing company depend heavily on its catch.
Exalmar has a 6.95% assigned quota in north-central Peru and can process anchovies caught by third parties, which increases its overall participation in the market.