Private investment will continue to boost growth in Peru's gross domestic product (GDP), following the 3.44% annual expansion recorded in 2025, said Alberto Morisaki, Economic Studies and Statistics Manager at the Automotive Association of Peru (AAP).
"Growth in 2025 was higher than the market expected, even above projections from the Central Reserve Bank, and closer to the outlook put forward by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). The MEF is sometimes very optimistic, projecting 3.5%, while the Central Bank, in its latest forecast, anticipated 3.3%. Ultimately, growth came in at 3.44%," he told Andina News Agency.
Morisaki added that the 2025 outcome exceeded expectations among financial institutions and economists, while projections from non-financial companies were below 3.4%.
"For 2026, taking into account that December was a good month, economic growth is expected to range, I could say, between 3% and 3.2%, supported by rising private investment. While it may not reach the level recorded in 2025, private investment is set to post significant growth, which in turn boosts formal employment and incomes," he indicated.
The AAP official noted that private consumption would experience some deceleration amid the electoral context, but would recover in the third and fourth quarters if no candidate opposed the free-market model in a runoff election.
Likewise, Morisaki expects the exchange rate to remain stable this year, within a range of S/3.30 to S/3.35 per U.S. dollar, noting that so far there is no factor likely to trigger sharp volatility in the dollar's price.
In that regard, he anticipated that households and companies that meet their financial obligations will enjoy greater purchasing power, as lower credit risk enables access to a broader range of credit products.
Similarly, Morisaki forecast that the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) could ease its monetary policy in the second half of the year, cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4%, amid expectations that inflation will remain within the issuing entity's target range.
He noted that a key risk factor could be the electoral process, should a candidate opposed to the market economy advance to the runoff.
Another risk would be the occurrence of Coastal El Niño, which would have climate-related impacts on fishing and agro-export production.
However, improved business expectations have remained in optimistic territory for several consecutive months, driven by higher prices for commodities that Peru exports, such as copper and gold, and by increased profits that companies are set to distribute in 2026, injecting additional liquidity into the market.
"I believe 2026 is shaping up to be a positive year. Business outlooks show solid momentum, and with political uncertainty easing, this is fueling corporate optimism," he said.
Economist Jimmy Astocondor, a lecturer at Pacifico Business School, forecast that Peru's economy would expand between 3.5% and 3.8% this year, with inflation below 2%, a BCR benchmark ranging from 3.5% to 3.75%, and a fiscal deficit not exceeding 2%.
The professor also expects a stable outlook in relation to the electoral environment and, finally, an exchange rate in the range of S/3.30 to S/3.35 per U.S. dollar.