The Peruvian economy will grow 2.5% this year and 2.4% in 2023 despite recession forecasts of the production activity in the United States, according to estimates by
Credicorp Capital.
"The U.S. economy could enter a recession between the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but it would be milder than in 2008," said Jorge Beingolea, Vice-President of Portfolio Solutions at Credicorp Capital Asset Management.
The Credicorp Capital officer explained that with inflation above 8%, the U.S. Federal Reserve must adjust its monetary policy more markedly to weaken demand and thereby reduce inflationary pressures.
"We expect a recession scenario in the United States. However, this could only materialize in the first quarter of 2023. Also, this might be a bit deeper than previously forecast, though still relatively mild," he remarked.
Beingolea noted that the Peruvian economy is not immune to what may happen in the rest of the world.
Performance
According to
Credicorp Capital, the U.S. economy would fall 0.3% in 2023 and, along the same lines, the Eurozone would contract 0.1%, both affected by the international situation.
Although China is not expected to experience a fall (it would grow 3.2% this year and 5.2% in 2023), Beingolea noted that the fact of not growing as fast as expected (at a rate higher than 5%) makes it a drag on the world economy.
"For this reason, we believe that the outlook for risk assets (mainly equities) will have little potential for appreciation in the short term," he said.
Impact on consumption
Beingolea commented that this year the Peruvian economy was sustained by consumption and favored by withdrawals of pension funds in the private Pension Fund Administrators (AFP) system and of Service Time Compensation (CTS) funds.
"But this translates into short-term impulses," he noted.
However, the Credicorp Capital officer stated that this effect will vanish in the future and more sustainable growth engines will be needed again, which has to do with consumer and investor confidence.
(END) SDD/JJN/RMB/MVB
Publicado: 15/9/2022