The Peruvian economy is in a position to continue in an expansionary phase given the savings generated, the
"What indicators such as the trade balance surplus and the current account surplus tell us is that Peru is in a position to grow because it has accumulated savings. How we use those resources going forward is the challenge," said its
General Manager Paul Castillo.
According to the monetary authority's projections, the trade balance surplus at the end of 2025 would reach US$30 billion, including a current account surplus equivalent to two percentage points of GDP.
The economist participated in the Peru: Sustainable Growth and 2026 Outlook Forum organized by Universidad Cientifica del Sur in Lima.
At this event, he emphasized that, with the proper use of these savings —such as in infrastructure modernization and the development of new capacities— long-term growth potential can be generated.
Expectations
On the other hand, the BCR official mentioned that there is a shift in business and consumer sentiment.
This change, in particular, started last year but continues the current one, he added.
"There is a little more confidence about what lies ahead. It is a change that is driving economic growth, which is now closer to its potential. We estimate that, based on this year's results, we would be growing at the level of our potential," Castillo stated.
For this year, the BCR general manager projected that private investment would grow 6.5%.
It is already growing at 11% in the third quarter, Castillo noted.
"Our projection incorporates a slowdown, because usually, when there are elections, business and consumer confidence deteriorate slightly. If that did not happen, we could certainly see higher growth," he said.
Fed
On the other hand, the general manager noted that market expectations are increasing regarding the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its rates, but not at a rapid pace.
Peru has recorded lower inflation than the United States for more than 12 consecutive months.
"If our projections remain unchanged, Peru's inflation will remain lower than that of the United States throughout 2026 and all of 2027," he concluded.