The Peruvian economy has proven to be one of the most resilient in Latin America, not only due to its capacity to overcome various adverse factors, whether internal or external, but also because it has managed to remain one of the strongest in the region. In fact, it has been taken as an example by many regional economies.
According to the
Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF),
the Peruvian economy has laid the foundations for its consolidation this year, after accumulating a 3.3% growth between January and April of this year.
"This result constitutes a clear sign of recovery, driven by domestic demand and the dynamism of exports. Furthermore, it consolidates the foundations for sustained growth over the remainder of the year," Minister Raul Perez Reyes stated.
This development was associated with the performance of non-primary sectors, which expanded by 1.7% and marked 13 consecutive months of positive performance, thanks to the proper development of sectors linked to consumption.
External outlook
"Any worsening on the trade or geopolitical front would pose downside risks to global growth," he emphasized in the Inflation Report: Current Outlook and Macroeconomic Projections 2025–2026.
In this regard, Velarde stated that the largest downward revision in growth corresponds to the U.S. economy, due to the impact of postponed investment decisions and lower consumer confidence.
"Besides, the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic projections consider an increase in inflation and a higher unemployment rate than expected in March. The median interest rates remain unchanged for this year and are expected to rise in 2026 and 2027," the official explained.
Unlike in the U.S., inflation in Latin America has generally resisted falling within the target range — with the exception of Peru.
According to Velarde, Peru's external position is quite positive, which is to be expected considering the high export prices currently prevailing in the market, which are having a positive impact on our exports.
Employment and GDP
In terms of employment, the BCR governor detailed that formal employment has grown by 5.5%.
"In the private sector alone, growth was 7.1%; a large part of this development was due to the performance of the agricultural sector, where employment grew by approximately 25.8%," he noted.
Similarly, economic expectations remain positive.
"Although they are stable and slightly increasing, the key point is that a stabilized level of confidence is observed," Velarde stated.
Regarding GDP growth, the official affirmed that this year’s projections have been adjusted.
"Initially, GDP growth was projected at 3.2% for this year, but we slightly adjusted it downward to 3.1%, and this has a lot to do with the performance of metallic mining," he explained.
Velarde detailed that the collapse of the only shiploader at San Nicolas port terminal —operated by Shougang Hierro Peru— caused a total halt in mining operations for five months starting May 5. This will affect iron production, and the impact will be reflected in overall mining output and the national economy.
Furthermore, the issuing entity's head stated that private investment performance has also been adjusted.
"Previously, we expected private investment to grow by 4.1%, and now we think it will do so by 5%. For next year, we maintain our forecast of 3.5% growth," he said.
Velarde detailed that this growth is supported by a recovery in self-built housing, better financial conditions, and increased business confidence.
Among the top
The Central Reserve Bank governor stated that these indicators place Peru among the three leading economies in the region expected to register the highest growth this year.
"Compared to other Latin American countries, we are not in a bad position. We are one of the economies that will grow the most. Paraguay has performed very well this century and will be the second fastest-growing country; while Argentina will be first, and Peru third," he specified.
On the fiscal side, the BCR projected a deficit of 2.5% for this year, a slight increase from the earlier projection of 2.2%; while for next year, a 2.1% deficit is expected.
"Although Peru's deficit is lower than in other countries, we are facing a concerning trend regarding public debt. Despite this, Peru has the lowest public debt level in the region. It is estimated to rise from 32.1% of GDP to 32.6% between 2024 and 2026," he said.
Regarding the benchmark interest rate, the official highlighted that it remained at 4.50% in June.
"The statements reiterate that future adjustments will be conditioned on new information about inflation and its determinants," the BCR head pointed out.
However, he noted that since the beginning of the global interest rate hike cycle, Peru has maintained the lowest rate among the countries in the region.
"The monetary policy rate has been the lowest among the main countries in the region since 2020," Velarde stated.
(END) DOP/SDD/JMP/MVB