The starting point from which the crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East is being faced is one of solid macroeconomic data and a growing economy, said Reyk Itakura, Top-Down public markets investment manager at AFP Integra.
"The Peruvian economy is at a point of growth and solidity, and a significant impact would be required to affect economic activity," he indicated during an interview with Andina News Agency.
The manager stated that a significant expansion of the conflict would be needed to have an impact on Peru's economy.
The executive said the impact arises from uncertainty over oil prices.
"Oil is the risk asset through which other impacts are channeled," Itakura explained.
"It is an important component of the consumption basket and could lead to an increase in inflation," he noted.
If the conflict is short-term—he continued—a minimal increase in inflation could be expected within a month; otherwise, it could be reflected in the following months.
The manager also stated that an impact could be seen on interest rates in the United States, which is a factor influencing the global rise of the dollar.
In that regard, the executive noted that financial analysts are closely monitoring the conflict and making decisions on a daily basis.
"Most analysts consider that the conflict should last a few weeks, not much more than a month, due to the issue of storage capacity; if it is exceeded, production would have to stop and that would have much greater economic impacts," Itakura said.
Finally, he noted that there were significant increases in commodity prices, along with a strengthening of the Peruvian sol in 2025.