The Board of Directors of the
agreed to keep the reference rate steady at 4.75%.
Future reference rate adjustments will be conditional on new information about inflation and its determinants.
The decision to maintain the reference rate considered the following information and projections:
i. In January, monthly inflation was -0.09% and core inflation was -0.15%. This result in monthly inflation is mainly explained by the gradual normalization of supply conditions for some food products and the reversal of seasonal factors in transportation services. Between December and January, year-on-year inflation decreased from 2.0 to 1.9%, close to the midpoint of the target range. The year-on-year core inflation fell from 2.6% in December to 2.4% in January.
ii. Global inflation is expected to decrease, with most central banks gradually approaching their targets. However, in some countries, this convergence could take longer.
iii. One-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 2.45 in December to 2.37% in January, within the target range.
iv. Year-on-year inflation is expected to approach the lower bound of the target range in the coming months, as the reversal of supply factors continues, before eventually returning to levels close to the center of the target range. Likewise, core inflation is expected to continue declining and converging toward the center of the target range in the coming months.
v. In January, the majority of indicators of economic activity expectations recovered and remain at the optimistic territory, as was the case in the previous months, with economic activity around its potential level. The economic activity indicators show higher growth in recent months.
vi. The outlook for global economic activity points to moderate growth as a gradual monetary policy normalization continues in most advanced economies. Uncertainty persists regarding the impact of trade policies, as well as the risks arising from international conflicts.
The Board is particularly attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of core inflation, inflation expectations, and economic activity, to consider, if necessary, additional changes in the monetary stance.
It reaffirms its commitment to adopt the necessary actions to maintain inflation within the target range.
The Board also decided on the following interest rates on its window facility operations in domestic currency with financial entities:
i. Overnight deposits: 2.75% per year.
ii. Direct security/currency repo and rediscount operations: i) 5.25% per year for the first 10 operations in the last 3 months and ii) the interest rate set by the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee for operations in addition to these 10 operations in the last 3 months.
Besides, the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee may establish higher rates based on the amount of the operations.
The BCR Board's next monetary policy session will take place on March 13, 2025.