Andina

Moody's: Peruvian GDP to exceed 3% in 2020 due to strong domestic demand

Moody

Moody's

13:57 | New York (U.S.), Jan. 7.

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday forecasted that Peru's domestic demand will be strong and underpin GDP growth above 3% this year.

"Strong domestic demand, particularly in investment, will support growth of over 3% in Colombia (Baa2 stable) and Peru (A3 stable)," it highlighted.

Region's performance

However, the credit rating agency affirmed it expects a lower trend growth in 2020-21.

"In an environment of slowing global growth, domestic demand will be the main growth driver in 2020. As in previous years, we expect investment to remain relatively subdued."

Moody's added that median growth for the region will be around 2.4% compared to over 4% in 2010-13.

In this sense, it projected that most of the region's economies will "expand by approximately one percentage point less in 2020-21 than in 2010-18."

Growth performance will vary, with large economies lagging.

Regarding Argentina, the credit rating agency said, it expects the recession to carry over into 2020.

For its part, "Chile's (A1 stable) GDP growth will remain under 3% as rising social discontent continues to weigh on domestic demand and as external headwinds persist."

Likewise, GDP growth will be higher this year in Mexico and Brazil (Ba2 stable), "but we expect annual rates in the order of just 2% or lower in both cases."

Furthermore, the Dominican Republic (Ba3 stable) will remain the most dynamic economy in the region with growth of over 5%, while Panama (Baa1 stable) is moving toward a lower but still strong trend growth of 4.5%.

"We see scope for economic activity to accelerate in 2021 but to remain relatively weak, with most economies' real GDP expanding by under 3%," it concluded.

Editor's note: Based on information provided by Moody's Investors Service.

(END) NDP/MVB

Publicado: 7/1/2020