has projected that exports of goods and services would grow 1.7% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024, favored by higher traditional (mainly copper) and non-traditional volumes (especially farming product shipments).
Likewise, it considers the recovery of services exports associated with tourism given the dissipation of social conflict and implementation of measures to reactivate tourism —in accordance with the Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework (MMM) 2024-2027.
The MEF specified that goods exports would grow 1.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024 due to the increase in shipments of traditional mining (goods) and non-traditional products from the agro-export and fishing sectors.
Greater mining offer
In line with the increased mining supply, the
MEF forecasts that
traditional exports would increase due to higher volumes of copper and molybdenum from Quellaveco (mine), and
hydrocarbons due to the recovery of production by gas blocks.
On the contrary, the government agency projects that fishmeal exports will have a differentiated dynamic between 2023 and 2024.
For 2023, said exports are projected to decrease due to the lower landing of anchovy given the non-opening of first fishing season, mainly because of adverse biological conditions and the development of El Niño phenomenon.
In 2024, shipments would recover due to the progressive normalization of climatic conditions that would favor the catch of anchovy.
Non-traditional exports
For their part, non-traditional exports would be sustained by the growth of agro-exports, mainly of fruits and fishery products for direct human consumption, in addition to the improvement in external demand from Peru's main trading partners.
According to the MEF, in the first half of 2023, shipments of avocados (27.5% nominal), blueberries (26.4%), and grapes (15.8%) to the United States and Europe went up.
Besides, a growing dynamism is projected in the following months, which will enable Peru to remain one of the world's main agro-exporters.
It is worth mentioning that Peru held the 6th position on the list of main agro-exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean last year thanks to products that lead the world ranking: blueberries and quinoa held the first place; in turn, grapes, avocados, and mangoes were placed second.
Fishing
The
MEF foresees that
fishing sector exports will increase due to shipments of squid —mainly given greater availability, which boosted a 37.7% growth in non-traditional fishing shipments during the first half of 2023— added to the
gradual recovery in scallop and shrimp exports in 2024.
Furthermore, an increase in the demand for manufactured products, such as chemical, textile and iron-steel ones, is expected in 2024, associated with the recovery of trading partners' economic activity —after a slowdown in 2023.
Besides, the demand for non-traditional exports will be favored by the trade agreements in force and due to come into force, given the current negotiations with Hong Kong and Central American countries, the United Kingdom's accession to the CPTPP, among other important agreements.
Within this framework, exports of services would increase 10.1% in 2023 and 11.8% in 2024 due to the gradual restoration of the flow of non-resident passengers driven by measures aimed at tourism recovery.
For instance, measures are being implemented as part of Con Punche Turismo (Tourism with Strength) plan to enhance conditions for tourism facilitation and security in destinations, plus connectivity to strengthen the country's tourism offer.
Better conditions
Additionally, the
Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism (Mincetur) continues to work on improving trade accords such as the optimization of the trade agreement with China, which
will deepen trade in terms of e-commerce and services; and the
entry into force of the economic-commercial deepening agreement with Brazil, which aims to boost and strengthen trade in services and bilateral investments.
Also,
considering the growing importance of the use of digital technologies, through the PENX 2025 (National Strategic Exports Plan), Mincetur continues to promote greater competitiveness and internationalization of companies through digital transformation and development of e-commerce in Peru.