The Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL) on Tuesday projected that Peruvian economy would grow 2.6% in 2024, a year in which most sectors would experience moderate growth due to a rebound effect and a not-so-strong El Niño phenomenon.
"Moderate growth would occur in the manufacturing sector, with an expansion of 3.8%, while construction would rise 3.6%," according to the CCL's Institute of Economics and Business Development (IEDEP).
Meanwhile, the IEDEP forecast that mining and hydrocarbon sectors will moderate their growth to 2.7%. Thus, the Quellaveco Effect will fade.
In the trade and services sectors, the expansion would remain at 3.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
Consumption and investment
The projections for 2024, on the spending side, show a rebound in private consumption (+2.9%) and private investment (+1.9%).
Taking into account that both aggregates account for around 83% of GDP, the low boost they will give to economic activity is understandable, the CCL noted.
In favor is the 3.7% growth projection for exports, stimulated by mining and farming activities.
"Stopping recession does not mean reactivation or sustained growth. Stopping recession will prevent the collapse of businesses, (as well as) the fall in employment, and the risk that real sector infects the financial sector and triggers slowness in payment of business loans, consumer loans, and mortgages," IEDEP chief Oscar Chavez underlined.
Challenges for 2024
Chavez said the main challenge for 2024 is economic reactivation with a GDP growth rate close to 3% annually —a figure that was not reached this year despite the Government's efforts undertaken through Con Punche Peru 1 and 2 programs.
"It must be noted that to overcome this challenge it is not just about increasing public spending; greater private investment is rather needed in an environment of business expectations that must be positive," he remarked.
Likewise, the CCL officer called for launching an investment shock considering that private and public investment have fallen in five out of the past 10 years.
Furthermore, it is urgent to take actions aimed at reducing poverty in Peru, currently at 27.5%, which will surely increase in 2023.
Performance
Moreover, Chavez projected that Peruvian economy will close 2023 with a GDP contraction (-0.5%).
He explained that this decline is mainly due to the construction (-8.7%) and manufacturing (-5.8%) sectors, whose performances were affected by political uncertainty and social protests over the course of this year.
Publicado: 26/12/2023