National productive activity would grow by around 3% in the second half of this year, driven by private spending increase, Banco de Credito del Peru (BCP) projected in its Quarterly Economic Studies Report.
"The favorable momentum of the economic cycle will continue in the second half of this year, although at a slightly more moderate pace. Thus, domestic demand will grow by around 5% this year," (BCP) Economic Studies Department Manager Carlos Prieto stated.
It is worth noting that BCP projects domestic demand will increase by 5.2% in 2025 and by 3.4% in 2026.
Indicators
The economist highlighted the progress of key indicators such as the increase in new vehicle sales, domestic cement consumption growth, and improved investment expectations, which remain at their highest levels since 2013.
"Domestic demand has posted three consecutive quarters of growth around 6%. Besides, non-mining, non-residential investment has recorded four quarters of double-digit growth," he emphasized.
Prieto explained that we are currently in the intermediate phase of the economic cycle, characterized by more modest yet robust, longer-lasting growth.
This momentum is being reinforced by a significant positive shock in terms of trade, he added.
Macroeconomic factors
According to the economist, the macroeconomic factors underpinning growth are:
– Favorable inertia of the economic cycle.
– Terms of trade at their highest level in 75 years.
– Low inflation that supports the recovery of consumption and real wages.
– Stronger signs of credit acceleration.
– Economic expectations in optimistic territory.
He also noted that other factors to be monitored in the coming quarters include the start and pace of Tia Maria mining investment, as well as political noise and polls toward the fourth quarter of this year and their impact on expectations.