According to the specialist, the problem with this scenario is that Peru is a country larger than South Africa, with more geographic regions. Thus, the spread of the virus can last much longer —first on the coast and then to other Peruvian regions.
Second scenario
In a second scenario, the third wave could have a longer cycle —probably until April or May 2022.
In a third scenario —which is the most desirable one— progress continues being made on the vaccination process, which can generate a longer cycle in time, but with a slow increase in the number of cases —in such a way that there is not an overflow hitting health services.
"It (this) is what we want; what we want is that there is not a massive increase, that there is a slow increase so as to be able to handle cases, because if there is a massive increase, it will saturate the (health) services, and that is when a higher number of deaths will be registered," Dr. Munayco told RPP radio and TV station.
Less lethal
After indicating that in recent weeks there has been an increase in the number of infections in Peru, which may anticipate the start of a third wave, the specialist said this event would take place in a different manner compared to previous ones —with a greater number of cases, but a smaller amount of people hospitalized and deceased.
Faced with this situation, the health professional did not rule out new restrictions to face a third wave. Yet he said these will be useless if there is no commitment from the population to get vaccinated, maintain social distancing, wear face masks, and
maintain the "family bubble."
"The key is not to get infected, and this depends on people's behavior. Restrictive measures can be imposed, but if people do not comply with those measures, they will still become infected. Hence, it is important to act responsibly," he noted.