The recent agreement announced by the United States and Iran to put an end to the conflict in the Middle East has led to a notable improvement in the global economic outlook,
The economist explained that this geopolitical agreement significantly changes the global landscape by removing one of the main external risks that threatened to affect the start of Peru's next administration: rising energy costs.
Before this agreement, inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict had pushed projections for Brent crude oil toward US$200 per barrel. This would have sharply increased shipping costs—already up by nearly 50%—as well as the prices of fertilizers and imported food commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans.
With the agreement signed, declining global oil and fuel prices are helping to stabilize logistics costs and create room for very low—or even negative—monthly inflation rates in various countries.
Despite the easing of this source of external volatility, the BCR head warned that the local economy still faces a significant risk factor on the domestic front: the impact of El Niño phenomenon.
The climate event is expected to intensify toward the end of this year and the beginning of 2027.
As a result, the extent of its impact on agricultural production and infrastructure will depend entirely on the effectiveness of the mitigation measures implemented to contain its effects.
Additionally, on exchange-rate and fiscal matters, the BCR governor emphasized the strength of the Peruvian currency relative to other currencies in the region, supported by inflation that remains the lowest in Latin America.
However, he reiterated the need to keep the rigidity of current public-sector spending under control to avoid jeopardizing the sustainability of public finances in the event of a decline in international prices.