Central Bank estimates Peruvian economy will grow 0.9% in 2023

Photo: ANDINA/Daniel Bracamonte

Photo: ANDINA/Daniel Bracamonte

15:31 | Lima, Sep. 15.

The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) on Friday projected that the Peruvian economy will expand 0.9% this year, lower than its previous forecast of 2.2%.

"Our gross domestic product (GDP) projection indicates that the economy, which has been hit hard by primary sectors, is expected to grow 0.9% this year," the Central Reserve Bank Governor Julio Velarde said during the presentation of the latest inflation report.

"It (the economy) has seen a negative growth in the first half of the year and also in July, as the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported today," he remarked.

"We hope that it will recover in the following months in order to experience positive growth this year," Velarde added.

The economist explained that the revision of GDP growth in 2023 is mainly due to a stronger effect of the Coastal El Niño phenomenon, as well as to low consumer and business confidence.


The BCR chief showed the growth projections for primary GDP (2.5%) and non-primary GDP (0.4%) for the current year; while in 2024, projections will be as follows: primary GDP (3%) and non-primary GDP (3.1%).

"We had expected growth in the agricultural sector, and now we forecast a contraction of 2%, which is largely due to the drought in the south, but primarily due to the effects of El Niño in the north. Such effect is probably being reflected in the price of lemons," he indicated.

"A much greater impact is also being felt in fishing, a sector in which we expect to see a contraction of almost 27%, which also affects non-primary manufacturing, in this case fishmeal," Velarde added.


Published: 9/15/2023