Central Reserve Bank (BCR) Governor Julio Velarde has affirmed that Peru saw a rapid economic recovery in the third quarter of this year, driven by the implementation of the first three phases of the Economic Reactivation.
"We observe
a rapid recovery in the third quarter of the year and the signs we are seeing suggest a more gradual revival in the fourth quarter. Perhaps, this recovery might speed up if the assumptions that we are analyzing are met," he said.
Velarde estimated that the
Peruvian economy will reach pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
"The reopening of activities —which were not allowed in the second quarter— boosted the GDP in the third quarter and, since then, the economy would recover at a slower pace," he remarked.
Less severe drop in investment
Regarding private investment, he projected that the contraction will be less severe than expected three months ago.
"A 30% contraction was previously expected, but now we expect a 28.5% drop and a 20% growth for next year. Despite this recovery, Peru will remain below 2019 levels in 2021,"
the BCR governor estimated.
He stated that a further contraction in non-mining investment is expected for this year, exceeding the decline in mining investment, due to the strict lockdown in the second quarter. Both indicators are expected to see similar recovery levels in 2021.
Regarding public investment, he reported, it had contracted 40% in the first half of 2020. Consequently, a 19% decrease is projected for 2020 as a whole, while a 13.7% recovery is expected for next year.
(END) RGP/JJN/RMB/MVB
Published: 9/26/2020