estimated that the country's trade surplus would reach almost US$50 billion by the end of this year, driven by higher terms-of-trade projections.
For next year, the BCR estimates indicate that Peru would once again post a trade surplus, reaching almost US$49 billion.
"The (annualized) trade balance recorded as of April shows a surplus of US$43 billion, and we expect to close the year at nearly US$50 billion and at about US$49 billion in 2027, driven by export growth," it said.
The central bank noted that exports would reach US$118 billion.
"That is our estimate (for this year), with imports of nearly US$69 billion," BCR Governor Julio Velarde said during the presentation of the June Inflation Report.
In this regard, the expert noted that the terms of trade would end 2026 up 18.3%, supported by a 25.6% increase in export prices.
"The terms of trade are at an exceptional level. We are actually seeing the highest prices in the past 76 years. They are providing a very strong boost to our exports," Velarde added.
The terms of trade are an economic indicator that compares the prices of a country's exports with the prices of its imports.
When they rise, it means the country can purchase more with what it sells abroad; when they fall, the opposite occurs.
"We have the best terms of trade on record, and we are setting new records in terms of the trade surplus," the BCR head pointed out.
According to the data used, Peru has consistently posted trade surpluses since 2020—the year of the pandemic and lockdowns—and has not recorded a single trade deficit during that period.
Trade Balance in 2026's first four months
Peru's trade balance recorded a surplus of US$16.171 billion between January and April 2026, up 89% from the US$8.555 billion recorded in the same period of the previous year, according to data from the Central Reserve Bank (BCR).
Trade balance over the past 12 months
Peru's trade surplus totaled US$43.049 billion in the 12 months through April 2026, a figure 6.7 times higher than the level recorded in 2019—the pre-pandemic year—when it stood at US$6.472 billion in December of that year, according to information from the BCR.
The evolution of this indicator reflects the sustained strengthening of Peru's external sector in recent years, driven by the performance of both traditional and non-traditional exports, as well as by improvements in the terms of trade during various periods.
Evolution since the pandemic
After recording an annualized trade surplus of US$6.472 billion in December 2019—before the COVID-19 pandemic—Peru's trade balance fell to US$5.398 billion in June 2020 amid the economic restrictions stemming from the global health emergency, according to BCR data.
However, a gradual recovery began in the second half of the year, allowing the country to close 2020 with a trade surplus of US$8.098 billion.
During 2021, the trade balance maintained an upward trend and ended the year with an annualized surplus of US$14.894 billion, boosted by the recovery of global economic activity.
The positive trend continued in 2022, when the indicator reached a peak of US$15.948 billion in March.
It subsequently moderated, bringing the annualized surplus down to US$10.094 billion by the end of that year.
In 2023, the trade balance resumed a sustained growth trajectory.
The surplus accumulated over the previous 12 months increased from US$10.063 billion in January to US$17.005 billion in December, supported by the recovery of exports and the gradual normalization of foreign trade following the pandemic.
The expansion accelerated in 2024, when the annualized trade surplus closed at US$24.144 billion.
In 2025, it reached a record US$35.433 billion, driven by higher mining, agro-industrial, and manufacturing exports, according to figures reported by the BCR at the time.
(END) GDS/MVB