FocusEconomics' LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts have maintained Peru's growth projection for 2018 at 3.7%, according to March report.
"FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.7% in 2018, unchanged from last month's forecast, and 3.8% in 2019," the latest report states.
The panel notes this year solid credit growth, accommodative monetary conditions, and a strengthening
mineral sector are expected to spur business investment, which, together with rising
public infrastructure spending, should support fixed investment.
Political uncertainty, which could further hit sentiment, remains the main downside risk to the outlook.
Outlook Stable
Annual GDP growth slowed considerably in the last quarter of 2017, in part due to a weaker external sector, which saw exports declining and imports —especially of capital goods— rising in yearly terms.
Softer household spending and fixed investment also weighed on growth.
Moving into 2018, the
economy seems to have broadly maintained the moderate pace of expansion seen in 2017, which was restrained by a troubled political environment.
In January and February, car sales dropped year-on-year, and the unemployment rate increased.
In February, business confidence declined, although it remained in optimistic territory, and
consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level so far during President Kuczynski's administration, which began in July 2016.
That said, public investment continued to grow robustly in January, and in the first two months of the year credit to the private sector expanded at a healthy pace.
(END) NDP/RMB/MVB
Published: 3/14/2018