Peru will continue to stand out as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region during the period 2024-2028, according to the
The MEF indicated that this performance is supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals, recognized by international institutions, according to the Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework 2025-2028, published by this government agency last week.
"Between 2024 and 2028, Peru's economic growth might be 3% on average, surpassing countries such as Colombia (2.6%), Chile (2.4%), Mexico (2.1%), as well as the average growth expected for the region (Latin America: 2.2%)," the MEF projected.
Likewise, macroeconomic strengths will remain a notable aspect of Peru's economy, which have been recognized by international institutions.
"In particular, in April 2024, the World Bank highlights Peru's macroeconomic strengths, characterized by low public debt, ample international reserves, and a well-capitalized financial system that is resilient to liquidity shocks," the MEF noted.
"For its part, the IMF highlights the abundance of liquidity and large capital reserves of banks, which enable them to contain various risks in the Peruvian financial system. It also adds that as the economy recovers, it expects non-performing loans to gradually decrease," the ministry said.
In the medium term, these macroeconomic strengths will continue to be consolidated, it forecast.
"Thus, Peru is expected to maintain a high level of international reserves, equivalent to 28.8% of GDP on average between 2024 and 2028, which might still be higher than that of countries such as Brazil (2024-2028: 15.2% of GDP), Chile (2024-2028: 13.3% of GDP), Colombia (2024-2028: 13% of GDP), and Mexico (2024-2028: 11.2% of GDP)," it pointed out.
Public debt and inflation
The
MEF stressed that
public debt will remain low and below that of
other countries in the region.
"Inflation will also remain within the target range set by the Central Reserve Bank, fluctuating between 1% and 3%," the government agency projected.
"Thus, macroeconomic strengths will provide a favorable outlook for investors, showing Peru as an attractive and solid destination for investments," it said.
Potential GDP
In the MMM, the
MEF projected that
Peru's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3% between 2026 and 2028 due to greater increase in private investment.
It is argued that, according to various estimates, the potential growth of Peru's economy has gone from an average of 6.1% between 2003 and 2012 to 3% between 2013 and 2023.
Based on MEF estimates for 2024 and 2025, potential GDP growth might be between 2.3% and 2.6%, taking into account only historic information and keeping everything else constant (ceteris paribus).
Potential, natural, or long-term GDP is defined as the production level achieved when all available resources in the economy are used to their maximum capacity.
GDP Deviations from its potential level represent the business cycle's expansion and contraction periods.
In the long term, economic growth reflects the potential GDP increase.