There's a 62% chance that El Niño Phenomenon will develop in the Pacific Ocean between May and July, the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its latest report.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next 6 months.
"While we are still in an ENSO-neutral phase —when El Niño or La Niña are not present— there is a 62% chance that El Niño will develop sometime between May and July. This comes after nearly two continuous years of La Nina events," the statement reads.
NOAA explained that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) is a climate pattern defined by sea surface temperature and precipitation departures from normal across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather and climate patterns across the U.S. and around the world.
It stated that, in March, both the Southern Oscillation Index and the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index were close to zero.
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO when ocean temperatures are warmer and precipitation is greater than normal in the area spanning the central to eastern Pacific Ocean.
The U.S. climate agency stated that the latest runs from our computer climate models are providing very high probabilities that El Niño will develop this year. In addition, the water temperature in the tropical Pacific saw an increase in the past month as a Kelvin wave traversed the ocean.
"This warm subsurface will provide a source of warmer water to the surface over the next couple of months and helps provide confidence in the forecast," it added.
In addition, wind anomalies will be displayed, which will allow the sea surface to get warmer.
"One more observation supporting the potential development of El Niño is the currently very warm far-eastern Pacific. The Niño-1+2 index, which measures the sea surface temperature off the coast of Peru, was near-record warm in March. A coastal El Niño like this can precede a larger El Niño event, although not always," it underlined.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor the potential development of El Niño and will issue the next monthly update on May 11, 2023.
(END) MAO/RMB
Published: 4/18/2023