Peru: SENAMHI forecasts warm autumn and winter in Lima due to Coastal El Niño

12:57 | Lima, Feb. 18.

After ENFEN warned of the possible presence of Coastal El Niño between March and November, the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (SENAMHI) said the event could influence Lima's climate, leading to a warmer-than-usual autumn and winter, similar to conditions recorded in 2023.

"From May onward, the impact of Coastal El Niño will be less about rainfall and more thermal in nature. Autumn is likely to be warm, as is winter, which will not be as harsh as it typically is," SENAMHI Deputy Director of Climate Prediction Yury Escajadillo stated.

"Depending on how the event develops, it will be possible to determine how many degrees above normal temperatures could rise," the specialist told Andina News Agency, recalling that a similar event occurred three years ago, when this phenomenon was present as well.

"In 2023, beyond the rainy season, warm conditions developed during autumn and winter along the entire coastal strip, including Lima; that is why there was a public perception that there was no winter. 2023 was the hottest year in recent times. This year remains to be seen," he noted.

The Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) forecast that Coastal El Niño would begin in March and extend through November.

During this period, warm conditions of weak intensity are expected to prevail, reaching moderate levels in July.

Regarding the current outlook, ENFEN said rainfall ranging from normal to above normal is expected along the northern coast, where episodes of moderate to heavy rain cannot be ruled out in March and April, along with above-normal temperatures.

(END) RAI/RRC/MVB

Published: 2/18/2026