Inflation expectations in Peru's economy will decline during the remainder of this year as external pressures might have disappeared,
has forecast.
"A reduction in inflation expectations is expected for the rest of the year (…) there is price stability. In any case, we don't observe upward pressures that we observed once the cycle of high inflation rates had originated," he said during an audio conference held by the BCR.
The official specified that around the world there is a downward trend in fuel prices, as well as in some food commodities.
In this sense, Armas indicated that a scenario of normalization of conditions for agricultural production is expected for the current year —which includes greater access to inputs and fertilizers.
"A reversal of the supply shocks in the agricultural sector is expected because new sowing will be carried out at lower costs," he underlined.
The
chief economist indicated that the
Central Bank's projection means a downward trend in year-on-year inflation from next March —with a return to the target range in the fourth quarter of 2023.
"This projection is based on the moderation of the spectrum of international food and energy prices," he pointed out.
Reference rate
Armas explained that the
decision to maintain the BCR's stance of stopping the rise in the reference rate next March will depend on the indicators to be presented in February.
"The decision on the monetary policy rate in March will be in line with the information we observe in February. In January, trend inflation rate signs moderated, to the point that in the first month the rate was 0.23%, the lowest since February of last year," he indicated.
The
chief economist asserted that
the BCR remains attentive to indicators in order to guarantee the commitment to adopt the necessary measures with the aim of ensuring the return of inflation to the target range.