Andina

Moody's: Peru liquidity risk still high, improving after 2017's tough business conditions

14:28 | Mexico City (Mexico), May. 9.

Liquidity risk remains high for Peruvian non-financial corporate issuers but has rebounded to 2016 levels after a period of destructive weather, a major corruption scandal, and political upheaval.

"Economic growth in Peru accelerated in 2018, particularly during the second half of the year," says Moody's Assistant Vice President Sandra Beltran.

"The recovery supported stronger cash generation and improved access to capital markets. Still, Peru's corporate liquidity risk lags that of the corresponding risk in other major Latin American markets, aside from Argentina," she added.

Liquidity for Peruvian non-financial companies still lags that of their peers in Mexico, Chile and Brazil, given the more frequent reliance on their ability to roll over short-term debt with local banks.

Despite a generally strong, long-term relationships with domestic banks, non-financial companies in Peru may find access to liquidity restricted during economic downturns. 

Meanwhile, improved cash generation has helped some companies to reduce financing risk and boost short-term debt coverage ratios, but cash generation from mining will be mixed through 2020.

In 2019, Moody's expects that loan growth will rise to nearly 12%, supported by consumer, mortgage as well as corporate lending, and corporate lending focusing on the agriculture, mining, commerce and trade sectors. 

Simultaneously, consumer lending will rise in line with increasing consumer demand, greater banking penetration and the growth of the middle class, while relatively low interest rates and declining real estate prices will boost mortgage lending. 

The Peruvian banking system liquidity will remain adequate, despite accelerating loan growth.

Editor's note: Based on information provided by Moody's.

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Published: 5/9/2019