The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday estimated that Peru's real GDP will increase 2.5% this year and 2.7% in 2025.
According to the
multilateral body,
Uruguay (3.7%), Peru (2.5%), and Colombia (1.1%) will improve their performance from 2023.
Moreover, the
IMF's report on the world economic outlook predicts that
Venezuela will experience the highest growth (4%), followed by Paraguay (3.8%), Brazil (2.2%), Chile (2.0%), Bolivia (1.6%), and Ecuador (0.1%), while Argentina is projected to contract 2.8%.
Likewise, the global organization said that the baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2% during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023.
It went on to note that a slight acceleration for advanced economies —where growth is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025— will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.2% in both 2024 and 2025.
In addition, the IMF pointed out that the forecast for global growth five years from now —at 3.1%— is at its lowest in decades.
As stated in the report, global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.
Furthermore, the IMF stated that the global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability.
The report's Chapter 2 explains that changes in mortgage and housing markets over the prepandemic decade of low interest rates moderated the near-term impact of policy rate hikes.
In turn, Chapter 3 focuses on medium-term prospects and shows that the lower predicted growth in output per person stems, notably, from persistent structural frictions preventing capital and labor from moving to productive firms.
Finally, Chapter 4 further indicates how dimmer prospects for growth in China and other large emerging market economies will weigh on trading partners.
(END) NDP/RMB/MVB
Published: 4/16/2024