The Amazonian population of Cusco, Huanuco, Junin, Madre de Dios, Pasco, and Ucayali regions will be the most affected in Peru by the climate crisis by 2050, reveals a study carried out by the
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the
National Service for Natural Areas Protected by the State (Sernanp).
The study identifies the areas with the highest risk to climate change impacts in the country's southern Amazon region —under a scenario of emission and concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) of high emissions by the year 2050, considering the natural environment and population centers.
The South American country has a high sociocultural, economic, political, and ecosystem complexity. Likewise, it presents a marked socioeconomic inequality and high dependence on activities sensitive to climate change.
Responding to risks linked to climate variations involves making adaptation-related decisions with a level of uncertainty regarding the severity and timing of impacts.
Most vulnerable regions
The analysis was conducted for the Amazon biome of Cusco, Huanuco, Junin, Madre de Dios, Pasco, and Ucayali regions.
The determination of scenarios was characterized based on the global response with the behavior of greenhouse gas emissions and the local response at the level of Peru characterized by local governance —linked to the behavior of the main source of emissions defined by the deforestation trend in the different analyzed regions.
The danger component was characterized with the variables of changes in temperature and in precipitation. Along these lines, ecosystem vulnerability was characterized with the variables: current land use, endemic flora and fauna, susceptibility to mass movements, structural condition of forest, structural connectivity, soil organic carbon, and land management.
Social vulnerability was characterized with the following variables: age of the population; illiteracy; population with disabilities; housing roof material; housing wall material; housing floor material; access to water, drainage, and public electricity network; implementation of the national civil defense system; accessibility to: health services and health insurance; educational level; as well as access to telecommunications.
The data indicates that, in the study area, climate change by 2050 will affect around 1,531,500 people due to variations in temperature and precipitation.
These results show the high relationship between ecological and social systems, resulting in ecosystem vulnerability with a high influence on social vulnerability —especially in areas with low human development indices.
(END) LZD/MAO/MVB
Published: 4/29/2022