raised its forecast for Peru's 2026 economic growth from 3.2% to 3.4%, driven by an improved outlook for non-primary sectors and stronger private spending, according to the June Inflation Report presented by the institution's
The new estimate represents an improvement over the forecast issued in March this year and leaves unchanged the growth projection of 3.2% for 2027.
According to the monetary authority, the upward revision is primarily driven by a more favorable performance of domestic market-oriented activities, although part of this effect will be offset by a lower contribution from the primary sectors.
The BCR explained that its updated forecasts now incorporate a scenario involving a strong Coastal El Niño event, whereas its March projections had assumed a weak-intensity event.
This change would primarily affect agriculture, fishing, primary manufacturing, and hydrocarbons.
Despite this, the economy would maintain a growth pace similar to that observed in 2025, supported by stronger momentum in non-primary activities, driven by strengthening domestic demand, improved investment conditions, and higher terms of trade.
The central bank highlighted that private spending would offset a large share of the adverse effects associated with the climatic phenomenon.
Among domestic demand components, private investment would be one of the main drivers of economic growth.
The BCR projects that private investment will post double-digit growth, expanding by 12.5% in 2026, up from its previous estimate of 9.5%, supported by the execution of investment projects and a backdrop of favorable terms of trade.
For 2027, private investment is expected to continue growing at a pace above that of Peru's GDP (6%).
Likewise, private consumption would grow by 3.6% in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 3.4%.
Overall, domestic demand would grow by 5.9%, reflecting the strength of household and business spending.
In contrast, export growth would moderate to 0.6%, according to the BCR.
The monetary authority underscored that various economic indicators continue to show favorable performance.
Among them are domestic cement consumption, the formal wage bill, domestic Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, and imports of capital goods—indicators that reflect an environment of stronger economic activity and investment.
The labor market has also shown positive performance.
Between January and April this year, around 242,000 formal private-sector jobs were created, mainly in the services, agriculture-livestock, and trade sectors. Meanwhile, nationwide formal employment grew by 5.4% over the same period.
The BCR believes that this environment, together with high export prices for the country's main metals and strong domestic demand, will enable Peru to rank among the fastest-growing economies in Latin America this year.
According to BCR projections, Paraguay would lead regional growth (4.1%), followed by Peru (3.4%), a rate higher than those projected for Argentina (2.9%), Colombia (2.5%), Brazil (1.9%), Uruguay (1.8%), Chile (1.7%), and Mexico (1.2%).