Following the strong growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the final months of 2024, the Peruvian economy might have continued accelerating its expansion and advanced above 4% year-on-year last December, Banco de Credito del Peru's (BCP) Economic Studies Department highlighted.
It explained that this result might be directly influenced by the strong performance of the second anchoveta fishing season.
As a result, the Peruvian economy might have grown nearly 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, the banking institution emphasized.
For 2025, the BCP estimates that the non-primary economy, which does not involve direct extraction of natural resources, has all the conditions to grow almost 4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, provided there are no negative external or internal shocks.
Cyclical Recovery
The BCP pointed out that this projection is based on various factors supporting the cyclical recovery of the economy, such as:
(i) The prices of the products exported by Peru would remain at favorable levels.
(ii) Local inflation is under control, which has allowed the Central Reserve Bank to reduce its reference rate.
(iii) Formal employment and real wages continue to recover, which will favor consumption.
(iv) Business expectations have returned to the optimistic range, which anticipates moderate growth in private investment.
Thus, Peru's economy will enter the intermediate phase of the economic cycle this year, a stage in which economic activity usually consolidates its dynamism, credit growth accelerates, and profits remain favorable in a context of neutral monetary policy.