The Board of Directors of the
agreed to keep the reference rate at 4.25%.
The decision to maintain the reference rate considered the following information and projections:
i. In June, the monthly headline inflation stood at 0.23%, while the core inflation was 0.08%, both consistent with the inflation target range in annualized terms. This result in monthly inflation is mainly explained by higher prices of certain food items, particularly fish, affected by anomalous ocean swells.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation increased from 3.9% in May to 4.0% in June, while core inflation rose from 4.4% to 4.5% over the same period. This deviation from the target range mainly reflects higher fuel prices and their indirect effects on transportation costs in March and April. Excluding the transportation component, core inflation stood at 1.6% year-on-year and has remained below 2% since April of last year.
ii. One-year-ahead inflation expectations declined from 2.9% in May to 2.8% in June, remaining within the inflation target range.
iii. Both headline and core inflation are expected to return to the target range and to stabilize around 2% over the forecast horizon, as the effects of supply shocks dissipate. However, there is a risk that a more severe El Niño event and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could have more persistent effects on inflation.
iv. Leading indicators of economic activity for June continue to show sound performance. In the Central Bank's survey, most current situation indicators improved relative to the previous month, while expectation indicators increased significantly, with all of them remaining in optimistic territory.
v. Global risk has moderated recently, reflecting the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the relative normalization of supply conditions in hydrocarbon markets, which has led to a downward correction in international oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions remains. In this context, the outlook for global economic activity growth for this year remain positive, and terms of trade continue to be favorable for the Peruvian economy.
The Board is particularly attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of core inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to undertake, if necessary, adjustments to the monetary stance.
It reaffirms its commitment to adopt the necessary actions to ensure the return of inflation to the target range over the forecast horizon.
The Board also decided on the following interest rates on its window facility operations in domestic currency with financial entities:
i. Overnight deposits: 2.25% per year.
ii. Direct security/currency repo and rediscount operations: i) 4.75% per year for the first 10 operations in the last 3 months; and ii) the interest rate set by the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee for operations in addition to these 10 operations in the last 3 months.
In addition, the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee may establish higher rates based on the amount of the operations.
The BCR Board's next monetary policy session will take place on August 13, 2026.