projected that Peru's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 3.1% this year, above the previous 2.8% forecast, amid high national and international uncertainty.
The economic body forecast 2.8% growth for Peru's output in 2026, above the initially estimated 2.6%, and 2.7% for 2027.
According to the document, the neutral monetary stance is appropriate and should remain cautious and data-driven.
"Fiscal consolidation has resumed, but stronger measures are needed to ensure compliance with the fiscal rule and debt sustainability, combining better spending efficiency with a comprehensive tax reform to raise revenues and fund education, social protection, and resilient infrastructure needs," it pointed out.
Likewise, the OECD said simplifying tax regimes for small firms, streamlining business licensing and permits, and improving regulatory predictability would boost formalization, investment, and productivity growth.
Domestic demand is driving growth
According to the OECD, GDP growth has been resilient in 2025, expanding by 3.3% year-on-year in the three quarters of the year, despite domestic and global uncertainty.
"Private consumption benefited from higher real incomes and a stronger labor market. Private investment rose by 9.0% year-on-year, reflecting improved business sentiment, looser financial conditions, and newly awarded Public-Private Partnership contracts," the report detailed.
However, public investment moderated after double-digit growth in 2024, and net exports weakened as import demand outpaced exports, the report indicated.
"Monthly GDP increased by 3.9% year-on-year in September, highlighting resilience into the third quarter. Inflation remains well anchored within the central bank's 1–3% target band, with headline and core inflation at 1.4% and 1.8% year-on-year in October, and one-year ahead expectations close to 2%," the OECD highlighted.
Similarly, it noted that employment grew by 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, and real wages in formal jobs rose 1.6% year-on-year in January-August 2025, though both labor force participation and formal wages remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Terms of trade
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development underscored the fact that historically high terms of trade, driven mainly by copper prices, are supporting the current account, but global and domestic political uncertainty are weighing on activity.
"The sol has appreciated by 10% since early 2025 despite heightened domestic political uncertainty, supported by strong revenues from mining exports and remittances, and portfolio inflows attracted by still-elevated interest rate differentials," it indicated.
The OECD added that ample currency reserves and low public debt provide resilience against shocks.
"The overall impact of the US tariffs of 10% on most products is projected to be modest, as raw copper exports remain unaffected and off-season production and lower tariffs than those faced by main competitors are expected to mitigate effects on agro-industrial and textile exports, which represent half of exports to the United States," it pointed out.
Fiscal policy
According to the OECD, fiscal policy should continue consolidating, while monetary policy remains appropriately neutral.
"Fiscal consolidation is planned for 2025–2027. High metal prices will support revenues and help narrow the deficit. The government has also recently announced austerity measures, including cuts to nonessential current spending amounting to around 0.1 % of GDP," it detailed.
However, the report said, additional measures will be needed, particularly from 2026, to meet fiscal rule targets, given the narrow tax base and rising spending pressures.
"Newly approved tax exemptions will weaken revenues and exacerbate distortions, while higher spending on the public sector wage bill, security, infrastructure and social programs, and renewed financial support to the financially distressed State-owned oil company Petroperu add to fiscal pressures," it assessed.
The OECD remarked that neutral monetary policy stance is warranted given anchored inflation expectations.
"After the recent cut to 4.25%, the policy rate is expected to stay unchanged through to 2027," it stated.