Banco de Credito del Peru's Economic Studies Area projected on Wednesday that, despite January’s result, inflation in Peru will remain stable at around 2% throughout 2026, supported by an economy that continues to show moderate dynamism and by the absence of significant inflationary pressures.
In this context, the financial institution maintained its opinion that the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) would lower its benchmark interest rate again, from 4.25% to 4%, during the second half of this year.
However, such a move would be conditioned by the consolidation of a low-inflation environment and exchange-rate stability.
Inflation in Metropolitan Lima continues to display controlled behavior, in line with the BCR's target range and consolidating as one of the main pillars of stability for the local economy.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), annual inflation stood at 1.7% in January 2026, marking 14 consecutive months below the midpoint of the target range set by the BCR (1%–3%).
Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated to an annual rate of 2% in January, up from 1.8% in December, reflecting isolated increases in sectors such as restaurants, hotels, and unprocessed food.
Nevertheless, these movements remained contained and consistent with an orderly price environment.
BCP added that the BCR would have no urgency to ease monetary policy, even if external conditions—including moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve—favor looser financial conditions.
Exchange-rate behavior—recently closing at S/3.37 per dollar following episodes of international volatility—would likewise help sustain a cautious stance.
The financial institution noted that, in the sovereign debt market, rates continued to decline along the curve, with the 2035 bond standing at 5.80%, reaffirming investors’ perception of lower local risk.
(END) NDP/CNA/MVB
Published: 2/4/2026