There is a 33% probability that
La Niña will occur in the central Pacific between December 2020 and March 2021, reported the Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN), of which Peru's Geophysical Institute (IGP) is a member.
According to a statement issued on August 13,
ENFEN changed its alert system to "Monitoring of Coastal La Niña," since a cooling of the sea and air temperatures has been observed off the coast of Peru, and if this persists, it could result in the development of a weak-magnitude La Niña event until the end of the year.
In addition, the statement warns that such cooling also occurs in the central Pacific and could continue through the summer of 2021.
Yamina Silva, a researcher at
IGP, explained that El Niño and La Niña are characterized, respectively, by unusual warming and cooling of tropical Pacific waters, which are part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the prominent driver of the year-to-year variation in the climate system in the world and Peru.
Amazon Basin
The IGP has documented the impact of La Niña on heavy rains and high flows in the Peruvian Amazon Basin.
The decrease in sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific, associated with La Niña, generates warming in the northern tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, which allows more moisture to be carried to the Peruvian Amazon.
A clear example of La Niña's impact on Peru was the event occurred between November 2011 and April 2012, which produced the highest recorded flow in the Amazon River and caused significant economic impacts in Loreto region.
"The heavy rains and floods that lashed Amazon regions in northern Peru such as Loreto in 2012 need further consideration when it comes to ocean-atmospheric mechanisms in order to identify the events, take preventive measures and reduce their impacts," Silva explained.
Published: 8/17/2020