The Peruvian economy will register an expansion of 12.2% this year, a projection that has been revised upwards from the 9% estimated last July, considering that the activity has been showing a relatively favorable performance, which is positively surprising, BBVA Research reported on Thursday.
According to the Peru Situation Report presented by this private entity, the projections' base scenario also considers —in terms of health-related matters— a third wave of COVID-19 infections, with a contained impact on the activity.
In early 2022 —with most of the population already vaccinated— the capacities will resume a gradual normalization, it forecast.
According to the report, the projections' base scenario considers that the recovery of global activity will continue in the coming quarters, with an expansion of 6.1% (2021) and 4.8% (2022) supported by the progress of vaccination against COVID-19 and economic policies which will remain expansive.
However, that global recovery will lose momentum due to negative supply shocks, such as bottlenecks in world production and rising energy prices.
"Supply shocks will also push inflation upward, leading central banks to reduce monetary stimuli. With the moderation of global growth and monetary conditions that are tightening, metal prices will yield, although they will remain at attractive levels," Perea indicated.
Peru's GDP in 2022
For next year, growth prospects for the economy point to a growth of 2.3%, he forecast.
(END) NDP/VLA/MVB
Published: 10/21/2021