, BBVA Research projected on Thursday.
In its Peru Situation Report, it foresees a gradual improvement in economic agents' confidence and a political scenario similar to the current one.
Thus, BBVA stated that, following the 2.5% GDP growth in the first half of 2024, it maintains the growth projections for Peru's economy released last June.
According to BBVA's Chief Economist, Hugo Perea, fishing will stand out at the sectoral level this year, which will positively impact primary manufacturing's expansion.
Private spending
According to these forecasts, private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, while public spending will moderate, geared towards complying with the limits established by the fiscal rule, the report indicated.
It added that the scenario presented by BBVA Research is consistent with the fact that weather anomaly has dissipated and that the forecasts by specialized entities indicate normal conditions in the following months.
BBVA mentioned that, on the political and social side, the situation will remain relatively stable, although regulatory risk is latent.
The projections in the Peru Situation Report also included the impact that the pension funds release will have on spending, a gradual improvement in financial conditions, and the increase in business confidence -which is consolidating in optimistic territory.
Contained inflation
During the presentation, BBVA Research underscored that inflation has remained around the center of the target range in recent months.
Similarly, the entity estimated that it will not stray far from that level in the coming months.
This projection is based on the fact that, according to the Peru Situation Report, inflationary expectations are anchored, there is slack in the economy, the recovery of activity is still incipient, and the climate will be relatively normal.
However, inflation is expected to accelerate somewhat in the fourth quarter due to the low base for year-on-year comparison, closing the year at around 2.5%.