raised trade balance estimates for this year in its latest inflation report and predicts that Peru will register historic records in its export levels both in 2024 and 2025.
Thus, the latest BCR report predicts that exports in 2024 might total US$72.946 billion after raising the growth projection from 6.3% to 8%.
Meanwhile, it is estimated that exports in 2025 might total US$75.682 billion, expecting a 3.8% rise % for that year, which could set a new historic record.
It is worth remembering that in 2023, Peruvian exports reached a historic record of US$67.518 billion.
"A greater trade surplus is projected for 2024 and 2025, in line with the projection for domestic production and spending, terms of trade, and global growth recovery," the report states.
The current account surplus is expected to increase in 2024 due to a greater trade surplus, recovery in tourism, and an increase in remittances.
The report indicates that the international environment remains favorable to our economy.
Adjustments for 2025
According to the BCR report, a smaller surplus will be registered in 2025 due to the recovery of companies' profits with foreign capital.
"Terms of trade rose 12.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, largely due to increased mineral prices, which were in turn favored by lower global supply, higher demand, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar," it noted.
Compared to what was expected last June, it is noted that the terms of trade were revised downwards in the projection horizon.