The 72 % of Peruvian entrepreneurs forecast that their business will improve in 2025, according to the XXII edition of the Annual Survey of Executives (EAE-2024) of The Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL).
The survey carried out by the Interdisciplinary Development Consulting (CID), collects the perception of the main executives of Metropolitan Lima regarding the performance of the current government, the economic and political environment and the main problems that affect business actions.
The survey was applied to a total of 380 CCL associated companies immersed in the service, commerce, industry and other sectors.
According to the survey, 72 % of Peruvian entrepreneurs considered that the performance of their businesses for 2025 will be better than in 2024. Meanwhile, 23 % of respondents expect their business to have a performance similar to that of 2024, while 5 % anticipate a decline.
According to Oscar Chavez, head of the Institute of Economics and Business Development (IEDEP) of the CCL, this result would respond to the positive expectation from the latest events that have occurred in the country, such as the inauguration of the port of Chancay and the meeting of the APEC Forum, which can promote greater economic growth through trade and economic cooperation.
"Added to this are the advances in controlling inflation and the reduction of interest rates in the coming months. All of this should boost formal employment by improving household income," he said.
Likewise, the IEDEP stressed that this optimism is also reflected in investment plans, where 31 % of the enterprises project growth compared to the previous year, while 52 % will maintain their level of investment. On the other hand, 17% have lower investment plans.
However, there are several factors that would put the favorable outlook for 2025 at risk, focusing on three main threats: political uncertainty and social unrest, increased insecurity in the business environment, and populist and inconsistent policies of Congress.
Political agenda for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the survey shows the priorities of businessmen to encourage growth and private investment. In this sense, their main concern is controlling security (54 %), a threat that must be urgently addressed for the proper functioning of companies.
This is followed by political stability (18 %) as it is essential to guarantee a climate of trust and predictability and the end of corruption (16 %), as it is perceived as an obstacle to growth and competitiveness.
Finally, the development of land, air and rail infrastructure (9%), key to improving connectivity and logistical efficiency in the country.
Sales at the end of 2024
The EAE-2024 was developed in a context of GDP recovery compared to 2023 with an estimated growth of around 3 % where the problems of political and social instability, as well as increasing citizen insecurity, continue.
Given this scenario, 48 % of respondents estimated that their sales would grow this year (of this total, 29 % expect their sales to grow up to 20%, while 19% estimate growth of more than 20 %).
Meanwhile, 35 % expect their sales to remain the same, while 16 % think they will fall, a percentage that corresponds to 23 % of SMEs and 40 % of companies less than 3 years old.
For Oscar Chavez, economic growth in 2024 “is still limited to the country's needs” such as tax collection, job creation and poverty reduction, with its main causes being political instability (55 %), insecurity and extortion (39 %) and economic instability (22 %).
Regarding investments for this year, companies are mainly allocating them to the maintenance of their facilities and some improvements that guarantee their normal operation. Secondly, the investment aims at the growth of their businesses, whether with new infrastructure, products or processes.
In the case of medium and large companies, the percentages are 38 % and 33 %, while in the case of SMEs they were 34 % and 30 % respectively.
It is also observed that companies with more years in the market invest more in maintenance, while companies with fewer years of existence invest more in business growth.
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Published: 12/31/2024