By Miguel de la Vega PolancoThe Peruvian economy continues to surprise both domestic and international observers. Despite political turbulence and the current security situation, it continues to show positive macroeconomic results that inspire confidence for 2026, even though it is an election year.
“Our economy has shown solid performance during 2025, exceeding initial expectations,” highlights economist and professor at Pacífico Business School, Jimmy Astocóndor.
He notes that this growth is primarily driven by domestic demand, which advanced approximately 6%, sustained by strengthened private consumption thanks to increased real income and withdrawals from pension funds (AFPs).
“However, the real engine is private investment, which registered exceptional growth of 11.4% in the third quarter of this year, the highest since 2013. This acceleration is explained by mining projects, construction, and infrastructure, which reflects a significant recovery in business confidence,” says Astocóndor.
Exceeds expectations
The Economic Studies Manager of the Peruvian Automotive Association (AAP), Alberto Morisaki, also highlights that “the Peruvian economy is showing positive performance, better than the market expected.” He notes that last October the national economy grew 3.6% year-on-year, accumulating 22 months of sustained growth.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), during the first 10 months of the year, the GDP increase was 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024, while the annualized growth (November 2024-October 2025) expanded to 3.7% compared to the same period a year earlier.
“For the last two months of 2025, we project that the dynamism of national production will experience a gradual moderation, which would largely be due to a statistical effect associated with a high base of comparison, given that the most significant expansion rate of that year was reached in the fourth quarter of 2024. Nevertheless, the economy is expected to close the year with growth close to 3.5%,” explains Morisaki.
It notes that the growth of the Peruvian economy is occurring within a context of an improving global economy, with an increased projection for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.1% and for 2026 from 2.8% to 3%.
At the country level, the improved performance of the United States and Chinese economies stands out due to greater investment in artificial intelligence and reduced trade uncertainty.
Outlook to 2026
Economist Jimmy Astocóndor highlights that growth projections for the Peruvian economy in 2026 show a consensus between 2.8% and 3.2%.
“The supporting factors for 2026 include sustained private investment with the continuation of mining and infrastructure projects, exceptional terms of trade that will reach their highest point in 75 years, and an additional boost to consumption from the effect of the eighth withdrawal of funds from the AFP pension funds during the summer of 2026,” he explains.
It also notes that domestic demand is projected to be robust with an annual growth rate of 4.3%, and a post-election recovery with less uncertainty is expected after April.
“Additionally, monetary policy could become more favorable with a possible reduction of the benchmark interest rate to 4%,” it adds.
For his part, Morisaki points out that “the release of funds from pension funds (AFPs) and severance pay (CTS) accounts, coupled with strong corporate results in 2025, will translate into a significant distribution of profits in 2026 and, consequently, a greater injection of liquidity into the economy.”
Favorable prices
All of this, together with the resilience shown by consumption and private investment, as well as commodity prices of minerals like copper and gold, which are expected to remain at favorable levels, creates a favorable scenario for growth of around 3% in 2026, Morisaki explains.
“This would occur even in a context marked by the proximity of the April 2026 general elections, a process that usually incorporates a component of uncertainty that can affect the decisions of economic agents,” it notes.
Outstanding Performance
For its part, Scotiabank's Economic Studies Department indicates in its latest weekly report that the Peruvian economy is poised to enter 2026 with strength.
"We are seeing a sustained level of economic activity growth, with performance exceeding our expectations. Private investment is leading this growth (11% in the third quarter of 2025), coupled with a robust labor market and record-high terms of trade that could persist," the financial institution notes.
"Thus, we project 3.2% growth for 2026, but we believe this figure has a slight upward bias," it adds.
It projects a stronger recovery in domestic demand, driven by private investment and consumption.
It also details that investment will benefit from an environment of less electoral uncertainty and business expectations that remain optimistic in both the short and medium term.
Central Reserve Bank Analysis
The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) highlights the strong performance of private investment in 2025 and a promising outlook for the following two years.
"Private investment is projected to grow by 9.5% in 2025, given the observed trend in non-residential investment," the bank stated.
For 2026 and 2027, growth of 5% is projected, marking three consecutive years of private investment growth exceeding GDP growth, the issuing entity noted in its latest 2025 inflation report. The report also indicates that business expectations regarding the economy and their sector have remained optimistic since mid-2024, with most indicators showing increases throughout the year.
“The 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised upward from 3.2% to 3.3%, consistent with the results observed in the third quarter of 2025 and leading indicators. The projection for 2026 has also been adjusted upward from 2.9% to 3%, a rate that is expected to remain the same in 2027,” the statement explains.
The upward revision of domestic demand for 2025 is due to the observed trends in private investment and consumption, the central bank adds.
Accumulated mining investment between January and October of this year totaled $ 4.4 billion, representing a 17.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024, when it reached $ 3.8 billion, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem).
For its part, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) recently announced that the Specialized Investment Monitoring Team (EESI) will focus its efforts on streamlining, unblocking, and monitoring more than 50 strategic projects, whose combined portfolio exceeds US$ 4 billion.
Factors
Which factors will weigh more heavily on the Peruvian economy in 2026, internal or external? In Morisaki's opinion, both factors will play a significant role in 2026.
“Among the internal factors, the positive evolution of private consumption and private investment will continue to generate a virtuous cycle with favorable results for GDP. We expect that business expectations, an indicator of investment behavior, will remain in the optimistic range, which translates into greater dynamism in private investment and, in turn, an improvement in consumer confidence,” he explains.
“From an external perspective, the prices of our main export products are expected to remain high and continue to be a significant driver of the economy,” he adds.
For his part, economist Jimmy Astocóndor points out that, according to historical analysis by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the National Center for Strategic Planning (Ceplan), more than 50%-60% of the variability in GDP growth is associated with external factors. “By 2026, this trend will continue, with external factors accounting for between 55% and 60% of growth,” he emphasizes.
Figures
- The Transportation sector's project portfolio for the period 2025-2031 represents $ 80 billion in investment. This portfolio, recently presented by the MEF through the Private Investment Promotion Agency (ProInversión), will be executed through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) and Works for Taxes (OxI).
The Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) anticipates facilitating $ 11.9 billion in investments in the mining sector between 2025 and 2028.
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Published: 12/25/2025