The Coastal El Niño phenomenon is settling in all over Peru as time passes by. The latest report issued by the
Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) indicates that there is a 77% chance that Coastal El Niño would continue until summer 2024, especially in the Niño 1+2 region, which comprises the Peruvian sea's northern and central parts.
In this regard, Enfen says that the Coastal El Niño Alert remains active, adding that the most likely magnitude of this event in autumn 2023 would be strong to moderate, while its magnitude in winter is likely to be moderate.
Finally, the most likely magnitude in summer 2024 will be moderate to weak.
Global El Niño
In the statement, Enfen also refers to El Niño event at the global scale, noting that, according to its analysis based on data observed to date, as well as forecasts from international weather centers, a higher probability of the occurrence of El Niño in the Central Pacific region (Niño 3.4 region) persists as of June.
As of now, "the magnitude of this event until September is more likely to be weak, with a tendency to become intensified by the end of the year," the multisectoral commission underlined.
On the other hand, it states that the range of possibilities include a 82% chance of a weak-to-moderate El Niño by the summer of 2024.
Enfen predicts rains above normal
In light of an El Niño event, Enfen projects rains slightly above normal along Peru's northern and central coastal regions, which may be characterized by the occurrence of localized rains and drizzles, respectively, between June and August 2023.
In addition, steady air temperatures will remain unchanged, above normal, along the coast.
(END) NDP/MAO/RMB/MVB
Publicado: 1/6/2023