After the second quarter of 2020 —when national gross domestic product (GDP) fell by up to 30%—
, Credicorp Capital reported on Thursday.
The officer noted that Peru had one of the worst declines in the second quarter of 2020, but the recovery speed was quite marked and impressive.
"After that -30% of the second quarter of last year, having managed to close all of 2020 at -11% means that the recovery was quite marked, and I would say that even impressive," he emphasized.
"As of January of this year, the economy reached the pre-crisis level; that means, the level at the beginning of 2020. There are only two countries that achieved this: Peru and Brazil, while the others were still below 2% to 3%," he explained.
"Let's never forget that there were analysts who managed to say that the projection for the Peruvian economy was of a fall of up to 20% in 2020. However, it ended up contracting 11.1%," he added.
The economist affirmed that there is an improvement in expectations, considering the international scenario, as well as the broad monetary and fiscal stimuli implemented in Peru, which drove the economic recovery.
"This is linked to the expansion of the monetary policy, the
Reactiva Peru Program, the ambitious fiscal program, commodity prices, the good performance of agro-industrial exports and withdrawals of pension savings," he explained.
Moreover, Velandia indicated that Peru's GDP may rebound 9% this year, although facing certain downside risks.
"We maintain a growth projection of 9% for this year, although the market consensus stands at 9.5% for 2021," he concluded.