The
National Center for Disaster Risk Estimation, Prevention, and Reduction (Cenepred) on Tuesday estimated that 1,446,991 people are exposed to mudslides and landslides due to rains, in a scenario of a moderate El Niño phenomenon, like the one that has been projected so far.
During a press conference,
Cenepred Chief Miguel Yamasaki said that, according to the risk scenarios prepared based on forecasts by the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi),
rains will be concentrated in Peru's northern area.
The official indicated that the other scenario that has been crafted, based on this information, is the one related to mass movements (mudslides, landslides, among others) that generally occur on the western and eastern slopes of the Mountain range, "which is where, due to accumulation and supersaturation of the soils, they begin to detach and cause the flow of debris or mudslides."
In this sense, Yamasaki indicated that the regions most affected by mass movements are Cajamarca, Piura, Huanuco, La Libertad, Ancash, Cusco, Junin, Pasco, Huancavelica, Amazonas, Puno, Arequipa, and Ayacucho.
"In that order," he pointed out.
When expanding the risk scenario indexes, the official said that 1,446,991 people will be exposed (to risks) between January and March 2024, "which does not mean that they will suffer because we cannot predict that, but they will indeed be exposed to risks of disasters due to mass movements."
The exposed buildings are 422,044 homes, 1,234 health establishments, and 9,091 educational institutions "that are (located) in areas likely to be reached by landslides or mudslides."
When referring to the issue of flooding, the Cenepred head indicated that this scenario has been considerably reduced and only the northern regions are basically present in it.
The regions considered in this scenario are Tumbes, Piura, La Libertad, and Lambayeque.
The population that is exposed to floods is composed of 766,604 people; the buildings are made up of 188,960 homes, 462 health establishments, and 1,261 educational institutions.
Short-term scenarios
Moreover, Miguel Yamasaki said short-term scenarios have also been crafted regarding the predicted rains from January 1 to 3.
In total, there are 11 regions considered in this scenario that are exposed to (risks). These include population, homes, health centers, and educational institutions. Thus, they have been divided into high- and very-high risk levels.
The regions included in this scenario are Ancash, Apurimac, Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cusco, Huancavelica, Huanuco, Junin, Lima, Pasco, and Puno.
Those facing very high risk are 461 population centers; the population at very high risk totals 27,483; this group also includes 8,762 homes, 38 health establishments, and 242 educational institutions.
The high-risk scenario is made up of 3,064 populated centers, a population of 572,509 citizens, 159,291 homes, 306 health centers, and 1,686 educational institutions.
(END) JCB/RMB/MVB
Published: 1/2/2024