Peru: Fishery, mining and agriculture activities already returned to 2019 levels

Anchovy. Photo: ANDINA/Rafael Cornejo

Anchovy. Photo: ANDINA/Rafael Cornejo

09:03 | Lima, Sep. 17.

The productive activities linked to primary sectors —such as fishery, mining, and agriculture— have during the third quarter of 2020 already returned to the levels recorded in 2019, Macroconsult economist Elmer Cuba said.

After reviewing the forecast for the country's GDP rate in 2020 (-14%), Cuba said it has been recently updated to a contraction closer to 11.6%.

"This is good news because the figures have improved, especially in the third quarter, which is somehow better. The fourth quarter will somehow remain the same as the current one, and we expect a decline of 11% this year, but a rebound of 9.1% the next one," he expressed.

Likewise, the officer mentioned that a 7% drop in GDP is expected for 2020's third quarter, as well as a 5% decline for the last one.

Furthermore, the economist indicated that non-primary sectors are not able to recover at the same pace as primary ones do, because the blow to household consumption has been very strong due to the novel coronavirus pandemic.

"In contrast to this, the primary sectors —such as agriculture, fishing and mining— have already rebounded; in this third quarter, they are already at the same productive levels as those registered last year (…)," he specified.

Likewise, Cuba pointed out that a "strong rebound" in consumption is expected for 2021. However, it would not reach the levels recorded prior to the pandemic.

"Private investment would also rebound less strongly (in 2021) because we will be in an electoral year, thus meaning nearly a lost quarter to find out who will win the (general) elections. However, a strong rebound in exports —especially in the mining-related sector— is expected," he added.


Published: 9/17/2020
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