Banco de Credito del Peru (BCP) has raised its projection for our country's economic growth from 2.8% to 3.2% by the end of 2025, due to various positive factors such as controlled inflation and employment recovery.
"If there are no major surprises this year, this (growth) should happen as expected. Therefore, we have revised our projection from 2.8% to 3.2% for 2025, in a scenario of controlled inflation," BCP Economic Studies Department Manager Carlos Prieto stated during the presentation of the bank's "Quarterly Economic Studies Report."
According to him, Peru's growth could even rise to 3.5% if the impact of the trade war —triggered by the imposition of tariffs between the United States and economies such as China and Canada— does not have significant repercussions on the national trade balance.
"If the trade war dissipates, generating more noise than real impact, estimates suggest that, instead of 3.2%, growth could reach 3.5%. This scenario poses a risk, which is why we are incorporating it into our projection," he explained.
Prieto highlighted that the Peruvian economy continues on a growth path close to 4%, as recorded in the last quarter of 2024. Thus, he believes this pace can be maintained in the first part of this year.
Factors
Among the factors supporting growth above 3% in 2025, BCP considers low inflation, which would in turn drive higher consumption, employment recovery, and wage improvements.
Additionally, favorable terms of trade near historic highs, the delayed effect of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) interest rate cuts, and the acceleration of bank credit would also contribute.
"We project that inflation will comfortably remain within the target range, between 2% and 2.3%. Furthermore, in March, it could be closer to 1%," the BCP Economic Studies Department Manager added.
On the other hand, potential negative factors that could slow Peru's economic growth include the effects of the trade war triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, local factors such as the start of the electoral period ahead of 2026, and the intensification of climatic phenomena.
(END) GDS/CNA/JMP/MVB