reported that, according to official projections, Peru's population is expected to reach 34,350,244 inhabitants in 2025 and 39,363,351 by the year 2050.
INEI Chief Gaspar Moran recalled that the Peruvian population did not exceed 8 million people eight decades ago.
He added that the period of greatest demographic growth was recorded between 1961 and 1972, with an average annual rate of 2.8%.
During the forum "The Future of the Population: Inclusive Data for Sustainable Development," Moran indicated that the average annual growth rate was 1.2% between 2017 and 2025, largely driven by Venezuelan migration.
Slight female majority in 2025
Historically, the proportion of men and women has been similar in censuses.
Only in 1972 was there a slight majority of males (101 men for every 100 women). Since then, a slight female majority has prevailed.
For 2025, it is projected that 50.4% of the population will be women (17,325,148) and 49.6% men (17,025,096).
However, the actual numbers will be known through the direct collection of data via the 2025 National Censuses.
Number of older adults will surpass the population under age 15
An analysis of trends from 1950 to 2050 shows that the population aged 0 to 14 years reached its peak in the year 2000, with 9,099,719 people.
Meanwhile, the group aged 15 to 59 is expected to continue growing until reaching its peak in 2045.
However, starting in 2040, older adults (7,578,253) will surpass for the first time those under 15 years of age (7,559,086), marking a demographic milestone for the country.
Lower birthrate accelerates population aging
In 2017, the base of the population pyramid was still broad and young (0–14 years). But, according to projections, by 2050 that base will shrink significantly due to a drop in birthrates, while the proportion of older adults (aged 60 and over) will grow.
The apex of the pyramid—composed of the oldest population—experiences a notable increase, reflecting greater life expectancy and a sustained demographic transformation throughout the country.
Demographic bonus and dependency ratio
The dependency ratio measures how many people in dependent age groups (0–14 and 60 and over) there are for every 100 individuals of working age (15–59 years).
This ratio has been decreasing since the 1965–1970 period, generating what is known as the demographic bonus: a stage when the economically active population grows faster than the dependent one.
In 2020, the ratio was 60.2 dependents for every 100 active people. However, this trend is expected to gradually reverse due to the increase in older adults and the decline in the population under 15, which will once again raise the demographic burden.
2025 national censuses to start in August
During the forum, the head of INEI also announced that the 2025 National Censuses will take place between August and October. Unlike in previous years, a de jure census will be conducted, that is, people will be counted at their habitual residence.
More than 40,000 enumerators will visit 1,891 districts across the country, covering 13,903,273 homes. All will be properly identified with an ID badge and QR code, which can be verified on INEI's website. It was emphasized that they will not enter homes during the data collection.
The census form includes 67 questions distributed across five sections, covering housing characteristics and population data. All information will remain confidential and be stored in real time through electronic tablets connected to INEI servers.
The forum took place at the headquarters of the Andean Community (CAN) in Lima.
It included the participation of Women and Vulnerable Populations Minister Fanny Montellanos, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Representative Hugo Gonzalez, and INEI Chief Dr. Gaspar Moran.
The event was held in observance of World Population Day on July 11.
(END) NDP/RRC/JMP/MVB