The terms of trade reached historic levels in the second quarter of 2025, with a 16.2% year-on-year increase, mainly driven by an 11.1% rise in export prices, the
According to the BCR, this outcome reflects the rise in prices of traditional products, mostly minerals, such as gold (+40.8%), copper (+14.4%), and zinc (+10.8%), as well as coffee, which saw a 102.4% increase.
The performance of the terms of trade also responded to a 4.3% drop in import prices, resulting from lower oil and petroleum product prices (-21.5%) and reduced costs for industrial inputs such as iron and steel (-10.7%), plastics (-5.5%), and textiles (-5.7%).
Between the second quarter of 2024 and 2025, the rise in export prices was driven by several factors:
(i) The strengthening of demand for safe-haven assets, especially gold, amid the U.S. dollar's depreciation, caution from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty over the direction of trade policy following the current truce.
(ii) The reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China, which improved demand prospects and partially eased trade uncertainty, supporting industrial metal prices.
(iii) The boost in prices of copper and zinc concentrates, favored by their gold and silver content, whose international prices rose during the period.
(iv) The impact of supply shocks on prices, due to adverse weather conditions in major coffee-producing countries that have not yet fully reversed, as well as limited Peruvian fishery supply in 2024.
To a lesser extent, the 4.3% drop in import prices also contributed, resulting from the gradual increase in OPEC+ production, accelerated in May and June, recession fears in the U.S. and China due to trade tensions, and a decline in industrial input prices from China.