Anchovy fishing is expected to maintain its momentum in the second half of 2025, following a strong first half, as projections indicate that 2025 could end with a catch close to 5 million metric tons (MT), a 9% increase compared to 2024 (4.6 million MT), according to Scotiabank's Economic Studies Department.
Scotiabank stated that this would be the highest level in four years due to favorable oceanographic conditions.
"Colder-than-usual sea surface temperatures for much of the year allowed for a strong start to the first fishing season in the north-central region and record catches during the first season in the southern region," the banking institution stated.
"Our projection takes into account the landing of 441,000 MT recorded in January (corresponding to the remainder of the 2024 second season), 2.47 million MT from the 2025 first campaign (which ended in July), and around 2 million MT for the second campaign (of which 1.85 million MT might be caught this year)," it added.
Scotiabank detailed that 190,000 MT were caught during the first season in the southern region, representing 75.6% of the quota (251,000 MT), and a lower catch is expected for the second season in the southern area.
"The first fishing season in the north-central region of 2025 began on April 22, with the Ministry of Production setting an anchovy quota of 3 million MT. This high quota, the largest in seven years, was based on a healthy biomass of around 11 million tons, thanks to neutral environmental conditions in the marine ecosystem," the banking institution stated.
"The campaign got off to a strong start, with an average daily landing of 50,000 MT. However, from the last week of May, the influx of high-salinity subtropical surface waters altered the distribution of anchovy, causing a decline in catches in June and July. The season concluded on July 23, with 2.46 million MT caught, equivalent to 81.9% of the assigned quota," it added.
Scotiabank's Economic Studies Department projected that for 2025's second fishing season in the north-central region, which might start in November and continue until January 2026, around 2 million MT will be caught, of which approximately 150,000 MT might be landed in January 2026.
"This level would be 18% lower compared to the 2024 second campaign, which was the highest in four years. Our projections assume normal oceanographic conditions," Scotiabank stated.
"Regarding fishmeal, exports might reach around US$1.7 billion, 5% higher than in 2024. The increase would mainly come from a rise in export volume (10%) due to the strong first-season campaign in the north-central region," it concluded.