For the first time, illegal gold mining exports are about to match legal ones and could even surpass them this year if no control measures are implemented, Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) Public Policy Chief Maria Alejandra Ormeño has warned.
The senior officer added that exports of illegal origin have quadrupled since 2019, while legal ones have only doubled.
"The IPE has estimated that, for the first time, illegal gold mining exports will match legal exports in 2025, and if left uncontrolled, they could surpass them, as the growth rate of illegal exports is increasing faster than that of legal ones," Ormeño said via Red de Comunicacion Regional (RCR).
The IPE officer explained that legal exports have doubled since 2019; however, illegal ones have quadrupled, making it a growing problem.
She mentioned that illegal gold exports are projected to reach up to US$12 billion, equivalent to between 105 and 115 metric tons.
"We are seeing a sharp increase in illegal exports, and there is an important issue: this analysis does not take into account the gold that is smuggled, for instance, to countries like Bolivia. That gap is very difficult to estimate as there is no data; besides, small-scale miners don't report how much they are actually producing," Ormeño stated.
The expert noted that the problem is not limited to gold, as signs of illegal copper mining have also been identified in regions such as Puno, where the number of processing plants has increased six-fold over the past decade.
Moreover, an average of 82 processing companies and 52 trading firms have been created each month so far in 2025, demonstrating the unprecedented growth of an informal supply chain, Ormeño cautioned.
"We have been analyzing the beneficiation plants, where some metals linked to artisanal and small-scale mining are processed; thus, we found that their numbers have multiplied at a scale not seen before; so, illegal mining is not limited to exports, as it spans the entire supply chain, including trading and processing," she indicated.
Ormeño warned that illegal mining is not only an economic threat but also a large-scale social and environmental issue, as it is closely linked to organized crime, generating increased violence, extortion, and homicides in regions such as La Libertad, Arequipa, and Madre de Dios.
"These areas also coincide with districts where the (Peruvian) State has the lowest presence and the lowest provision of basic services. We see cases in Madre de Dios, Arequipa, and La Libertad, which have the highest homicide rates and suspended reinfos. There is a clear and unfortunate link between illegal and informal mining and violence," she noted.
Ormeño reported that illegal mining, combined with drug trafficking and other informal economies, accounts for around 4% of the national GDP —surpassing even sectors like tourism.
Similarly, it reflects an increasingly concerning phenomenon. Therefore, Ormeño underscored the urgency of addressing this structural problem.
"So we are not talking about minor figures—we are talking about a significant impact, sometimes even greater than that of other economic sectors like tourism. This is a problem that appears to be long-term because it continues to grow, and the (negative) impact this year will likely be even greater," she alerted.
The IPE officer stated that the Comprehensive Registry of Mining Formalization (Reinfo) has allowed many illegal miners to evade criminal penalties in regions like Piura, where over 80% of those registered are suspended —reflecting the failure of the formalization process and the lack of real incentives for miners to leave illegality behind.
"We need to establish clear deadlines for Reinfo, implement effective gold traceability, and foster sustainable economic activities to replace illegal mining as a source of income," Ormeño underlined.
"The solution lies in a coordinated State response, with a multisectoral approach, to curb the illegal economy," she concluded.