Peru projects its economic growth to range between 3% and 3.5% of GDP in 2025, depending on whether the international outlook remains stable or uncertainty continues in the coming months,
For 2025, the Peruvian government has set "a (GDP) growth range between 3% and 3.5% under an optimistic scenario" and is working for it to materialize, Perez Reyes said at a press conference with foreign correspondents in Lima on Tuesday.
The government official added that "we are working with a 3.3% projection" for 2026, although "it could be affected either positively or negatively, depending on what happens externally."
"If the international environment remains stable, it is quite likely that we will align with the optimistic scenarios; but if it is affected, we could shift toward the pessimistic scenario, around 3%," he indicated.
In either case, Perez Reyes emphasized that Peru will be the second-best performing country regionally in terms of GDP growth, behind Argentina.
The minister highlighted that despite international uncertainty linked to U.S. trade policy and the resurgence of military conflicts abroad, Peru grew by 3.3% through April, attributing that great success to exports.
Peruvian exports reached a record of $75 billion in 2024. Within this framework, Perez Reyes estimated that "if they continue performing well, we will be close to $80 billion" in 2025.
He highlighted that Peru could double its exports to $150 billion over a 15-year period, if it manages to develop several irrigation projects along the coast, which could increase twofold the area of farmland dedicated to agricultural exports —one of the country's main export products.
In addition, the Peruvian government is promoting a logistics hub that integrates the new Chancay Port, the Port of Callao, and the new Jorge Chavez International Airport, all located in the central part of the country and near the capital.
Furthermore, the minister noted that private investment grew by 8.8% in the first quarter of this year, adding that tax revenues reached S/89 billion (US$25 billion) between January and June.
He also noted that Peru's public debt stands at 32% of GDP, while the fiscal deficit is 3.5% of GDP.
However, Perez Reyes stated that based on current projections, "we should be below 2.5% without any problem" in 2025 to avoid non-compliance with the fiscal target for a third consecutive year.
The minister stated that
his sector is setting a fiscal deficit target of 2.5% because they prefer to be "cautious" and "avoid breaking the fiscal rule for a third consecutive year," which —he noted— had been breached not due to inefficiency by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), but because "we had a recession in 2023 and needed to increase spending."