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BCR: Peru's fiscal deficit to decline to 2.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026

01:00 | Lima, Jun. 21.

The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) forecasts that the fiscal deficit will continue to decline this year, reaching 2.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, BCR Governor Julio Velarde stated.

The economist mentioned that a fiscal deficit of 2.2% of GDP had previously been expected for this year.

It should be noted that the annualized fiscal deficit was 2.7% of GDP in May and 3.5% at the end of 2024, according to information from the issuing entity.

"Although the fiscal deficit is lower than in other countries, we are (nevertheless) on a worrying trend," Velarde observed on Friday

Lowest public debt in the region

Velarde highlighted that Peru has the lowest level of public debt in the region.

"Public debt is estimated to rise from 32.1% of GDP to 32.6% between 2024 and 2026, remaining the lowest in the region," he stated.

On the other hand, Velarde said that the benchmark interest rate remained at 4.50% in June.

"The statements reiterate that future adjustments will be conditioned on new information about inflation and its determinants," he noted.

The BCR head mentioned that, since the beginning of the global interest rate hike cycle, Peru has maintained the lowest rate among countries in the region.

"The monetary policy rate has been the lowest among the region's main countries since 2020," he stated.

Lower inflation than in the U.S.

In that context, the BCR governor stated that the inflation expectations in Peru are lower than in the United States, at 2.27% versus 2.38%, respectively. 

"Hopefully that can be maintained in the future and we can get used to having inflation equal to or lower than that of the United States, because I believe it will build confidence in the long run," Velarde said.

He added that since 2023 Peru has maintained a lower level than the United States.

(END) JJN/JMP/MVB

Published: 6/21/2025
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